The summer and fall of 2023 was one of the driest in recent years, though there was considerable variability throughout the state, and even at the county level.

The NC Climate Office data illustrates this well. In Richmond County, if you’re in the northern part of the county (as I am), there was only about 1.6” of rain from June 24 to August 22. On the other hand, if you are in the south eastern part of the county, you were probably faring much better, with one location receiving 6.17” of rain during the same period. However, when you consider that most cultivated plants – from your vegetable garden to your lawn – require 1-1.5” rain per week in order to grow optimally, there was some level of rain deficit throughout the county.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Drought Information System characterized the past year (January through November) as the 31st driest period on record (since 1895), with 52.8% of the state at some level of drought classification by November. Climate watchers are hoping for a shift in that pattern as an El Niño weather pattern, which began to emerge this fall, hopefully signals a change this winter, bringing moisture to end the drought. We’ve already seen significant rain events this month that are moving us in the right direction.

What the heck is El Niño, you may ask? Or more likely, I’ve heard of it, but what does it mean, exactly?

Part of a larger climate cycle, the so-called El Niño (and it’s opposite effect, La Niña) are phenomena related to variations in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures, while La Niña is distinguished by below-average temperatures. These conditions then trigger subsequent changes in weather patterns across the globe which may last for a period of a few months to even several years. For us in North Carolina, typically El Niño brings cooler and wetter conditions in winter compared to the average, whereas La Niña brings warmer and drier than average conditions. According to the North Carolina State Climate Office, our last three winters have been La Niña’s, and so have trended toward warmer and drier weather in our state.

Although El Niño events (most recently in 2015-16, with a weaker version in 2018-19) have brought the anticipated wetter than normal conditions to us in NC, of the five El Niño events post-1990, temperatures have not trended cooler. In fact, the winter of 2015-16 was the tenth warmest winter on record. Following this more recent trend, NOAA’s winter outlook for North Carolina 2023-24 projects the chance of normal to slightly above normal temperatures on average this year, due to other large-scale patterns also occurring that also affect our weather. In spite of this, El Niño conditions are often our best bet for snow accumulations in the central and western portions of the state.

So the prediction for warmer than average winter temperatures does not discount the possibility of other weather patterns, such as a weakening polar vortex, that could still set up conditions to bring some frozen precipitation to our area. The historical data leans to us having at least one snow event this winter. In fact, out of 12 moderate to strong El Niño events, there was only one year where there was no snow in central NC. If there’s a slim-to-none change of us having a white Christmas this year, there’s hope for us to get some of the white stuff at some point this winter!

After an extremely dry summer and fall, the effects of an El Niño can’t come soon enough, and recent rain events seem to indicate we’re starting to see its influence. Heading into December, North Carolina was in a precipitation deficit of 5-10 inches and it will take a substantially wet winter to boost reservoir and groundwater levels. For now, farm ponds seem well on their way to being recharged after the past couple of rains.

If you’d like to learn more about how to find local weather data and trends for yourself, contact NC Cooperative Extension, Richmond County Center, for more information. Visit our website Richmond.ces.ncsu.edu and follow us on Facebook.